How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Cetatea, at 46.6%. The other outcomes represent 53.4% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 32.3% · Draw: 21.1% · Away win: 46.6%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Progresul Spartac 1477; Cetatea 1572. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 0–0. The result did not match the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Liga III - Serie 5 · Saturday, Oct 24 2026
· 12:00
Progresul Spartac
Elo 1477
0
-
0
Cetatea
Elo 1572
FT
HT 0-0
Home Form (5)
2W
0D
3L
Away Form (5)
2W
3D
0L
Elo Advantage
-95
H2H (2)
0H
0D
2A
Elo rating comparison
Progresul Spartac1477
Cetatea1572
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
0Progresul Spartac
0Draws
2Cetatea
2 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
47% conf.
WRONG
Home
32%
Draw
21%
Away
47%
Both Teams to Score
64% conf.
WRONG
Yes
64%
No
36%
Away Clean Sheet
80% conf.
WRONG
Yes
20%
No
80%
Home Clean Sheet
86% conf.
WRONG
Yes
14%
No
86%
Double Chance 1X
53% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
53%
No
47%
Double Chance X2
67% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
67%
No
33%
Half-Time Result
36% conf.
CORRECT
Home
30%
Draw
36%
Away
34%
HT Both Teams Score
73% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
27%
No
73%
HT Over 0.5
76% conf.
WRONG
Yes
76%
No
24%
HT Over 1.5
57% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
43%
No
57%
Over 1.5 Goals
87% conf.
WRONG
Yes
87%
No
13%
Over 2.5 Goals
68% conf.
WRONG
Yes
68%
No
32%
Over 3.5 Goals
52% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
48%
No
52%
Home Win to Nil
88% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
12%
No
88%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.