How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Metallurg Lipetsk, at 57.4%. The other outcomes represent 42.6% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 57.4% · Draw: 25.8% · Away win: 16.7%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Metallurg Lipetsk 1564; Orel 1320. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 1–2. The result did not match the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Second League - Group 3 · Saturday, Oct 24 2026
· 11:00
Metallurg Lipetsk
Elo 1564
1
-
2
Orel
Elo 1320
FT
HT 0-1
Home Form (5)
4W
0D
1L
Away Form (5)
1W
2D
2L
Elo Advantage
+244
H2H (2)
2H
0D
0A
Elo rating comparison
Metallurg Lipetsk1564
Orel1320
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
2Metallurg Lipetsk
0Draws
0Orel
2 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
57% conf.
WRONG
Home
57%
Draw
26%
Away
17%
Both Teams to Score
55% conf.
WRONG
Yes
45%
No
55%
Away Clean Sheet
85% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
15%
No
85%
Home Clean Sheet
53% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
47%
No
53%
Double Chance 1X
84% conf.
WRONG
Yes
84%
No
16%
Double Chance X2
58% conf.
WRONG
Yes
42%
No
58%
Half-Time Result
47% conf.
WRONG
Home
47%
Draw
37%
Away
16%
HT Both Teams Score
88% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
12%
No
88%
HT Over 0.5
62% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
62%
No
38%
HT Over 1.5
63% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
37%
No
63%
Over 1.5 Goals
79% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
79%
No
21%
Over 2.5 Goals
52% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
52%
No
48%
Over 3.5 Goals
74% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
26%
No
74%
Home Win to Nil
59% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
41%
No
59%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.