How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is FSV Mainz 05, at 66.3%. The other outcomes represent 33.7% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 66.3% · Draw: 19.3% · Away win: 14.4%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: FSV Mainz 05 2086; Werder Bremen 1957. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 2–3. The result did not match the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #720 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Bundesliga · Saturday, Oct 24 2026
· 13:30
FSV Mainz 05
Elo 2086
2
-
3
Werder Bremen
Elo 1957
FT
HT 1-2
Home Form (5)
2W
1D
2L
Away Form (5)
2W
2D
1L
Elo Advantage
+129
H2H (2)
2H
0D
0A
Elo rating comparison
FSV Mainz 052086
Werder Bremen1957
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
2FSV Mainz 05
0Draws
0Werder Bremen
2 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
66% conf.
WRONG
Home
66%
@ 1.67
Draw
19%
@ 4.14
Away
14%
@ 4.48
Both Teams to Score
62% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
62%
@ 1.53
No
38%
Away Clean Sheet
83% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
17%
No
83%
Home Clean Sheet
70% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
30%
No
70%
Double Chance 1X
84% conf.
WRONG
Yes
84%
@ 1.21
No
16%
Double Chance X2
61% conf.
WRONG
Yes
39%
No
61%
Half-Time Result
48% conf.
WRONG
Home
48%
@ 2.14
Draw
33%
@ 2.48
Away
19%
@ 4.51
HT Both Teams Score
79% conf.
WRONG
Yes
21%
No
79%
HT Over 0.5
79% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
79%
@ 1.25
No
21%
HT Over 1.5
59% conf.
WRONG
Yes
41%
No
59%
Over 1.5 Goals
80% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
80%
@ 1.15
No
20%
Over 2.5 Goals
63% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
63%
@ 1.53
No
37%
Over 3.5 Goals
54% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
54%
@ 2.34
No
46%
Home Win to Nil
74% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
26%
No
74%
Recent results
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Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.