How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Riga Mariners, at 57.8%. The other outcomes represent 42.2% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 22.6% · Draw: 19.7% · Away win: 57.8%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Mārupe 1486; Riga Mariners 1754. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 1–6. The result matched the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
1. Liga · Saturday, Oct 24 2026
· 14:00
Mārupe
Elo 1486
1
-
6
Riga Mariners
Elo 1754
FT
HT 0-2
Home Form (5)
3W
0D
2L
Away Form (5)
3W
1D
1L
Elo Advantage
-267
H2H (2)
0H
0D
2A
Elo rating comparison
Mārupe1486
Riga Mariners1754
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
0Mārupe
0Draws
2Riga Mariners
2 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
58% conf.
CORRECT
Home
23%
Draw
20%
Away
58%
Both Teams to Score
67% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
67%
No
33%
Away Clean Sheet
73% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
27%
No
73%
Home Clean Sheet
89% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
11%
No
89%
Double Chance 1X
56% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
44%
No
56%
Double Chance X2
72% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
72%
No
28%
Half-Time Result
39% conf.
CORRECT
Home
24%
Draw
37%
Away
39%
HT Both Teams Score
73% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
27%
No
73%
HT Over 0.5
78% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
78%
No
22%
HT Over 1.5
57% conf.
WRONG
Yes
43%
No
57%
Over 1.5 Goals
83% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
83%
No
17%
Over 2.5 Goals
64% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
64%
No
36%
Over 3.5 Goals
58% conf.
WRONG
Yes
42%
No
58%
Home Win to Nil
89% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
11%
No
89%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.