How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is HPS W, at 61.1%. The other outcomes represent 38.9% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 61.1% · Draw: 17.5% · Away win: 21.4%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: HPS W 1752; IF Gnistan 1444. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 4–0. The result matched the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Kansallinen Liiga · Saturday, Oct 24 2026
· 14:00
HPS W
Elo 1752
4
-
0
IF Gnistan
Elo 1444
FT
HT 3-0
Home Form (5)
4W
0D
1L
Away Form (5)
0W
0D
5L
Elo Advantage
+308
H2H (6)
6H
0D
0A
Elo rating comparison
HPS W1752
IF Gnistan1444
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
6HPS W
0Draws
0IF Gnistan
6 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
61% conf.
CORRECT
Home
61%
Draw
18%
Away
21%
Both Teams to Score
55% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
45%
No
55%
Away Clean Sheet
91% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
9%
No
91%
Home Clean Sheet
56% conf.
WRONG
Yes
44%
No
56%
Double Chance 1X
75% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
75%
No
25%
Double Chance X2
67% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
33%
No
67%
Half-Time Result
58% conf.
CORRECT
Home
58%
Draw
30%
Away
12%
HT Both Teams Score
82% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
18%
No
82%
HT Over 0.5
77% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
77%
No
23%
HT Over 1.5
56% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
56%
No
44%
Over 1.5 Goals
86% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
86%
No
14%
Over 2.5 Goals
68% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
68%
No
32%
Over 3.5 Goals
56% conf.
WRONG
Yes
44%
No
56%
Home Win to Nil
59% conf.
WRONG
Yes
41%
No
59%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.