How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Sagrada Esperança, at 54.3%. The other outcomes represent 45.7% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 54.3% · Draw: 28.1% · Away win: 17.6%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Sagrada Esperança 1594; 1º de Maio 1527. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 3–0. The result matched the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Girabola · Saturday, Oct 24 2026
· 14:00
Sagrada Esperança
Elo 1594
3
-
0
1º de Maio
Elo 1527
FT
HT 2-0
Home Form (5)
2W
1D
2L
Away Form (5)
1W
2D
2L
Elo Advantage
+67
H2H (5)
0H
4D
1A
Elo rating comparison
Sagrada Esperança1594
1º de Maio1527
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
0Sagrada Esperança
4Draws
11º de Maio
5 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
54% conf.
CORRECT
Home
54%
Draw
28%
Away
18%
Both Teams to Score
54% conf.
WRONG
Yes
54%
No
46%
Away Clean Sheet
81% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
19%
No
81%
Home Clean Sheet
71% conf.
WRONG
Yes
29%
No
71%
Double Chance 1X
75% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
75%
No
25%
Double Chance X2
56% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
44%
No
56%
Half-Time Result
42% conf.
WRONG
Home
41%
Draw
42%
Away
17%
HT Both Teams Score
76% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
24%
No
76%
HT Over 0.5
70% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
70%
No
30%
HT Over 1.5
61% conf.
WRONG
Yes
39%
No
61%
Over 1.5 Goals
74% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
74%
No
26%
Over 2.5 Goals
59% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
59%
No
41%
Over 3.5 Goals
67% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
33%
No
67%
Home Win to Nil
74% conf.
WRONG
Yes
26%
No
74%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.