How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Alverca, at 47.2%. The other outcomes represent 52.8% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 47.2% · Draw: 28.4% · Away win: 24.4%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Alverca 1839; Arouca 1832. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 0–1. The result did not match the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #720 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Primeira Liga · Saturday, Oct 24 2026
· 17:00
Alverca
Elo 1839
0
-
1
Arouca
Elo 1832
FT
HT 0-1
Home Form (5)
2W
2D
1L
Away Form (5)
3W
1D
1L
Elo Advantage
+7
H2H (2)
2H
0D
0A
Elo rating comparison
Alverca1839
Arouca1832
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
2Alverca
0Draws
0Arouca
2 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
47% conf.
WRONG
Home
47%
@ 2.17
Draw
28%
@ 3.30
Away
24%
@ 3.33
Both Teams to Score
53% conf.
WRONG
Yes
53%
@ 1.73
No
47%
Away Clean Sheet
78% conf.
WRONG
Yes
22%
No
78%
Home Clean Sheet
71% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
29%
No
71%
Double Chance 1X
75% conf.
WRONG
Yes
75%
@ 1.33
No
25%
Double Chance X2
57% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
57%
@ 1.67
No
43%
Half-Time Result
44% conf.
WRONG
Home
30%
@ 2.78
Draw
44%
@ 2.11
Away
27%
@ 3.86
HT Both Teams Score
78% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
22%
No
78%
HT Over 0.5
68% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
68%
@ 1.38
No
32%
HT Over 1.5
68% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
32%
No
68%
Over 1.5 Goals
76% conf.
WRONG
Yes
76%
@ 1.27
No
24%
Over 2.5 Goals
52% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
48%
No
52%
Over 3.5 Goals
69% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
31%
No
69%
Home Win to Nil
79% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
21%
No
79%
Recent results
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Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.