How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Shakhter Soligorsk, at 41.4%. The other outcomes represent 58.6% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 41.4% · Draw: 23.2% · Away win: 35.4%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Shakhter Soligorsk 1675; Smorgon 1662. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 4–0. The result matched the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
1. Division · Saturday, Oct 24 2026
· 13:30
Shakhter Soligorsk
Elo 1675
4
-
0
Smorgon
Elo 1662
FT
HT 1-0
Home Form (5)
1W
1D
3L
Away Form (5)
4W
0D
1L
Elo Advantage
+13
H2H (2)
0H
0D
2A
Elo rating comparison
Shakhter Soligorsk1675
Smorgon1662
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
0Shakhter Soligorsk
0Draws
2Smorgon
2 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
41% conf.
CORRECT
Home
41%
Draw
23%
Away
35%
Both Teams to Score
58% conf.
WRONG
Yes
58%
No
42%
Away Clean Sheet
80% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
20%
No
80%
Home Clean Sheet
77% conf.
WRONG
Yes
23%
No
77%
Double Chance 1X
60% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
60%
No
40%
Double Chance X2
55% conf.
WRONG
Yes
55%
No
45%
Half-Time Result
44% conf.
WRONG
Home
29%
Draw
44%
Away
27%
HT Both Teams Score
80% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
20%
No
80%
HT Over 0.5
73% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
73%
No
27%
HT Over 1.5
64% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
36%
No
64%
Over 1.5 Goals
74% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
74%
No
26%
Over 2.5 Goals
50% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
50%
No
50%
Over 3.5 Goals
72% conf.
WRONG
Yes
28%
No
72%
Home Win to Nil
74% conf.
WRONG
Yes
26%
No
74%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.