How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Cherno More Varna, at 53.8%. The other outcomes represent 46.2% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 53.8% · Draw: 28% · Away win: 18.2%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Cherno More Varna 1803; Septemvri Sofia 1674. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 2–0. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #720 · Recorded: . Historical record or date different from the current schedule; it should not be presented as a verified pre-match forecast.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
First League · Tuesday, Oct 27 2026
· 15:00
Cherno More Varna
Elo 1803
2
-
0
Septemvri Sofia
Elo 1674
FT
HT 2-0
Home Form (5)
2W
0D
3L
Away Form (5)
5W
0D
0L
Elo Advantage
+129
H2H (1)
1H
0D
0A
Elo rating comparison
Cherno More Varna1803
Septemvri Sofia1674
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
1Cherno More Varna
0Draws
0Septemvri Sofia
1 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
54% conf.
CORRECT
Home
54%
@ 1.69
Draw
28%
@ 3.51
Away
18%
@ 4.75
Both Teams to Score
51% conf.
WRONG
Yes
51%
@ 2.04
No
49%
Away Clean Sheet
86% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
14%
No
86%
Home Clean Sheet
50% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
50%
@ 2.10
No
50%
Double Chance 1X
84% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
84%
@ 1.15
No
16%
Double Chance X2
60% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
40%
No
60%
Half-Time Result
44% conf.
CORRECT
Home
44%
@ 2.30
Draw
40%
@ 2.09
Away
17%
@ 5.35
HT Both Teams Score
86% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
14%
No
86%
HT Over 0.5
72% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
72%
@ 1.39
No
28%
HT Over 1.5
77% conf.
WRONG
Yes
23%
No
77%
Over 1.5 Goals
71% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
71%
@ 1.34
No
29%
Over 2.5 Goals
53% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
47%
No
53%
Over 3.5 Goals
76% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
24%
No
76%
Home Win to Nil
63% conf.
WRONG
Yes
37%
No
63%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.