How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Shinnik Yaroslavl, at 39.6%. The other outcomes represent 60.4% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 39.6% · Draw: 25.9% · Away win: 34.5%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Shinnik Yaroslavl 1730; Spartak Kostroma 1760. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 2–1. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Historical record or date different from the current schedule; it should not be presented as a verified pre-match forecast.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
First League · Monday, Oct 26 2026
· 16:30
Shinnik Yaroslavl
Elo 1730
2
-
1
Spartak Kostroma
Elo 1760
FT
HT 2-1
Home Form (5)
3W
2D
0L
Away Form (5)
1W
3D
1L
Elo Advantage
-30
H2H (2)
0H
2D
0A
Elo rating comparison
Shinnik Yaroslavl1730
Spartak Kostroma1760
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
0Shinnik Yaroslavl
2Draws
0Spartak Kostroma
2 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
40% conf.
CORRECT
Home
40%
Draw
26%
Away
34%
Both Teams to Score
55% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
55%
No
45%
Away Clean Sheet
71% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
29%
No
71%
Home Clean Sheet
68% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
32%
No
68%
Double Chance 1X
64% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
64%
No
36%
Double Chance X2
61% conf.
WRONG
Yes
61%
No
39%
Half-Time Result
47% conf.
WRONG
Home
30%
Draw
47%
Away
23%
HT Both Teams Score
84% conf.
WRONG
Yes
16%
No
84%
HT Over 0.5
65% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
65%
No
35%
HT Over 1.5
69% conf.
WRONG
Yes
31%
No
69%
Over 1.5 Goals
68% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
68%
No
32%
Over 2.5 Goals
51% conf.
WRONG
Yes
49%
No
51%
Over 3.5 Goals
76% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
24%
No
76%
Home Win to Nil
79% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
21%
No
79%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.