How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Alcione, at 45.5%. The other outcomes represent 54.5% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 45.5% · Draw: 28.3% · Away win: 26.2%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Alcione 1584; Athletic Carpi 1532. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 1–2. The result did not match the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Serie C - Girone A · Saturday, Oct 24 2026
· 15:30
Alcione
Elo 1584
1
-
2
Athletic Carpi
Elo 1532
FT
HT 1-1
Home Form (5)
1W
2D
2L
Away Form (5)
2W
2D
1L
Elo Advantage
+52
Elo rating comparison
Alcione1584
Athletic Carpi1532
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
—Alcione
—Draws
—Athletic Carpi
0 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
45% conf.
WRONG
Home
45%
Draw
28%
Away
26%
Both Teams to Score
56% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
56%
No
44%
Away Clean Sheet
74% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
26%
No
74%
Home Clean Sheet
71% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
29%
No
71%
Double Chance 1X
75% conf.
WRONG
Yes
75%
No
25%
Double Chance X2
51% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
51%
No
49%
Half-Time Result
42% conf.
CORRECT
Home
37%
Draw
42%
Away
21%
HT Both Teams Score
74% conf.
WRONG
Yes
26%
No
74%
HT Over 0.5
69% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
69%
No
31%
HT Over 1.5
61% conf.
WRONG
Yes
39%
No
61%
Over 1.5 Goals
76% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
76%
No
24%
Over 2.5 Goals
54% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
54%
No
46%
Over 3.5 Goals
68% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
32%
No
68%
Home Win to Nil
79% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
21%
No
79%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.