How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Al-Karma, at 43.9%. The other outcomes represent 56.1% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 23.7% · Draw: 32.4% · Away win: 43.9%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Al Minaa Basra 1491; Al-Karma 1709. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 2–1. The result did not match the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Iraqi League · Saturday, Oct 24 2026
· 15:00
Al Minaa Basra
Elo 1491
2
-
1
Al-Karma
Elo 1709
FT
HT 0-0
Home Form (5)
3W
2D
0L
Away Form (5)
4W
1D
0L
Elo Advantage
-218
H2H (1)
1H
0D
0A
Elo rating comparison
Al Minaa Basra1491
Al-Karma1709
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
1Al Minaa Basra
0Draws
0Al-Karma
1 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
44% conf.
WRONG
Home
24%
Draw
32%
Away
44%
Both Teams to Score
57% conf.
WRONG
Yes
43%
No
57%
Away Clean Sheet
60% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
40%
No
60%
Home Clean Sheet
80% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
20%
No
80%
Double Chance 1X
50% conf.
WRONG
Yes
50%
No
50%
Double Chance X2
78% conf.
WRONG
Yes
78%
No
22%
Half-Time Result
43% conf.
CORRECT
Home
20%
Draw
43%
Away
37%
HT Both Teams Score
83% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
17%
No
83%
HT Over 0.5
62% conf.
WRONG
Yes
62%
No
38%
HT Over 1.5
74% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
26%
No
74%
Over 1.5 Goals
64% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
64%
No
36%
Over 2.5 Goals
60% conf.
WRONG
Yes
40%
No
60%
Over 3.5 Goals
81% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
19%
No
81%
Home Win to Nil
88% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
12%
No
88%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.