How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Al Merreikh, at 50.6%. The other outcomes represent 49.4% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 50.6% · Draw: 24.4% · Away win: 25%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Al Merreikh 1694; Horoya 1758. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 1–0. The result matched the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
CAF Champions League · Saturday, Oct 24 2026
· 17:00
Al Merreikh
Elo 1694
1
-
0
Horoya
Elo 1758
PEN
FT 90' 1-0
PEN 3-5
HT 0-0
Predictions evaluated on 90-minute result
Home Form (5)
2W
1D
2L
Away Form (5)
3W
0D
2L
Elo Advantage
-64
H2H (4)
0H
0D
4A
Elo rating comparison
Al Merreikh1694
Horoya1758
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
0Al Merreikh
0Draws
4Horoya
4 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
51% conf.
CORRECT
Home
51%
Draw
24%
Away
25%
Both Teams to Score
51% conf.
WRONG
Yes
51%
No
49%
Away Clean Sheet
77% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
23%
No
77%
Home Clean Sheet
61% conf.
WRONG
Yes
39%
No
61%
Double Chance 1X
70% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
70%
No
30%
Double Chance X2
55% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
45%
No
55%
Half-Time Result
48% conf.
CORRECT
Home
36%
Draw
48%
Away
16%
HT Both Teams Score
80% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
20%
No
80%
HT Over 0.5
66% conf.
WRONG
Yes
66%
No
34%
HT Over 1.5
66% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
34%
No
66%
Over 1.5 Goals
76% conf.
WRONG
Yes
76%
No
24%
Over 2.5 Goals
51% conf.
WRONG
Yes
51%
No
49%
Over 3.5 Goals
77% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
23%
No
77%
Home Win to Nil
74% conf.
WRONG
Yes
26%
No
74%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.