How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Figueirense, at 61.7%. The other outcomes represent 38.3% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 61.7% · Draw: 17.8% · Away win: 20.5%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Figueirense 1710; Joinville 1569. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 1–0. The result matched the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Copa Santa Catarina · Saturday, Oct 24 2026
· 14:00
Figueirense
Elo 1710
1
-
0
Joinville
Elo 1569
FT
HT 1-0
Home Form (5)
2W
1D
2L
Away Form (5)
4W
0D
1L
Elo Advantage
+141
H2H (2)
2H
0D
0A
Elo rating comparison
Figueirense1710
Joinville1569
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
2Figueirense
0Draws
0Joinville
2 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
62% conf.
CORRECT
Home
62%
Draw
18%
Away
20%
Both Teams to Score
51% conf.
WRONG
Yes
51%
No
49%
Away Clean Sheet
83% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
17%
No
83%
Home Clean Sheet
63% conf.
WRONG
Yes
37%
No
63%
Double Chance 1X
75% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
75%
No
25%
Double Chance X2
65% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
35%
No
65%
Half-Time Result
42% conf.
CORRECT
Home
42%
Draw
42%
Away
16%
HT Both Teams Score
79% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
21%
No
79%
HT Over 0.5
71% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
71%
No
29%
HT Over 1.5
68% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
32%
No
68%
Over 1.5 Goals
77% conf.
WRONG
Yes
77%
No
23%
Over 2.5 Goals
53% conf.
WRONG
Yes
53%
No
47%
Over 3.5 Goals
69% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
31%
No
69%
Home Win to Nil
63% conf.
WRONG
Yes
37%
No
63%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.