How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Petrópolis, at 72.0%. The other outcomes represent 28.0% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 72% · Draw: 16.6% · Away win: 11.4%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Petrópolis 1523; Carapebus 1357. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 2–2. The result did not match the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Carioca - 2 · Saturday, Oct 24 2026
· 18:00
Petrópolis
Elo 1523
2
-
2
Carapebus
Elo 1357
FT
HT 2-2
Home Form (5)
2W
3D
0L
Away Form (5)
0W
0D
5L
Elo Advantage
+166
Elo rating comparison
Petrópolis1523
Carapebus1357
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
—Petrópolis
—Draws
—Carapebus
0 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
72% conf.
WRONG
Home
72%
Draw
17%
Away
11%
Both Teams to Score
58% conf.
WRONG
Yes
42%
No
58%
Away Clean Sheet
89% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
11%
No
89%
Home Clean Sheet
55% conf.
WRONG
Yes
55%
No
45%
Double Chance 1X
93% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
93%
No
7%
Double Chance X2
70% conf.
WRONG
Yes
30%
No
70%
Half-Time Result
56% conf.
WRONG
Home
56%
Draw
33%
Away
11%
HT Both Teams Score
84% conf.
WRONG
Yes
16%
No
84%
HT Over 0.5
70% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
70%
No
30%
HT Over 1.5
57% conf.
WRONG
Yes
43%
No
57%
Over 1.5 Goals
77% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
77%
No
23%
Over 2.5 Goals
62% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
62%
No
38%
Over 3.5 Goals
65% conf.
WRONG
Yes
35%
No
65%
Home Win to Nil
50% conf.
WRONG
Yes
50%
No
50%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.