How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Serrano RJ, at 58.5%. The other outcomes represent 41.5% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 58.5% · Draw: 23.6% · Away win: 17.9%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Serrano RJ 1522; Nova Cidade 1426. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 1–0. The result matched the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Carioca - 2 · Saturday, Oct 24 2026
· 18:00
Serrano RJ
Elo 1522
1
-
0
Nova Cidade
Elo 1426
FT
HT 1-0
Home Form (5)
2W
2D
1L
Away Form (5)
1W
2D
2L
Elo Advantage
+96
Elo rating comparison
Serrano RJ1522
Nova Cidade1426
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
—Serrano RJ
—Draws
—Nova Cidade
0 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
59% conf.
CORRECT
Home
59%
Draw
24%
Away
18%
Both Teams to Score
53% conf.
WRONG
Yes
53%
No
47%
Away Clean Sheet
86% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
14%
No
86%
Home Clean Sheet
66% conf.
WRONG
Yes
34%
No
66%
Double Chance 1X
75% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
75%
No
25%
Double Chance X2
57% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
43%
No
57%
Half-Time Result
43% conf.
CORRECT
Home
43%
Draw
41%
Away
16%
HT Both Teams Score
84% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
16%
No
84%
HT Over 0.5
68% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
68%
No
32%
HT Over 1.5
69% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
31%
No
69%
Over 1.5 Goals
77% conf.
WRONG
Yes
77%
No
23%
Over 2.5 Goals
51% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
49%
No
51%
Over 3.5 Goals
74% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
26%
No
74%
Home Win to Nil
63% conf.
WRONG
Yes
37%
No
63%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.