How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Fortaleza EC, at 60.5%. The other outcomes represent 39.5% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 18.5% · Draw: 20.9% · Away win: 60.5%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Ponte Preta 1504; Fortaleza EC 1875. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 2–2. The result did not match the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Serie B · Saturday, Oct 24 2026
· 21:30
Ponte Preta
Elo 1504
2
-
2
Fortaleza EC
Elo 1875
FT
HT 2-1
Home Form (5)
0W
1D
4L
Away Form (5)
2W
3D
0L
Elo Advantage
-372
H2H (2)
0H
0D
2A
Elo rating comparison
Ponte Preta1504
Fortaleza EC1875
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
0Ponte Preta
0Draws
2Fortaleza EC
2 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
61% conf.
WRONG
Home
19%
Draw
21%
Away
61%
Both Teams to Score
57% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
57%
No
43%
Away Clean Sheet
64% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
36%
No
64%
Home Clean Sheet
91% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
9%
No
91%
Double Chance 1X
73% conf.
WRONG
Yes
27%
No
73%
Double Chance X2
84% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
84%
No
16%
Half-Time Result
43% conf.
WRONG
Home
17%
Draw
43%
Away
40%
HT Both Teams Score
83% conf.
WRONG
Yes
17%
No
83%
HT Over 0.5
75% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
75%
No
25%
HT Over 1.5
56% conf.
WRONG
Yes
44%
No
56%
Over 1.5 Goals
79% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
79%
No
21%
Over 2.5 Goals
54% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
54%
No
46%
Over 3.5 Goals
64% conf.
WRONG
Yes
36%
No
64%
Home Win to Nil
96% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
4%
No
96%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.