How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is São Bernardo, at 43.0%. The other outcomes represent 57.0% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 43% · Draw: 25.9% · Away win: 31.1%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: São Bernardo 1760; Vila Nova 1820. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 3–2. The result matched the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Serie B · Saturday, Oct 24 2026
· 19:30
São Bernardo
Elo 1760
3
-
2
Vila Nova
Elo 1820
FT
HT 1-1
Home Form (5)
1W
1D
3L
Away Form (5)
2W
3D
0L
Elo Advantage
-60
H2H (2)
0H
0D
2A
Elo rating comparison
São Bernardo1760
Vila Nova1820
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
0São Bernardo
0Draws
2Vila Nova
2 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
43% conf.
CORRECT
Home
43%
Draw
26%
Away
31%
Both Teams to Score
52% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
52%
No
48%
Away Clean Sheet
73% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
27%
No
73%
Home Clean Sheet
68% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
32%
No
68%
Double Chance 1X
65% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
65%
No
35%
Double Chance X2
53% conf.
WRONG
Yes
53%
No
47%
Half-Time Result
46% conf.
CORRECT
Home
33%
Draw
46%
Away
22%
HT Both Teams Score
81% conf.
WRONG
Yes
19%
No
81%
HT Over 0.5
72% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
72%
No
28%
HT Over 1.5
65% conf.
WRONG
Yes
35%
No
65%
Over 1.5 Goals
75% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
75%
No
25%
Over 2.5 Goals
54% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
54%
No
46%
Over 3.5 Goals
71% conf.
WRONG
Yes
29%
No
71%
Home Win to Nil
74% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
26%
No
74%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.