How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Deportivo Madryn, at 63.8%. The other outcomes represent 36.2% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 63.8% · Draw: 25.1% · Away win: 11%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Deportivo Madryn 1685; San Telmo 1523. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 4–1. The result matched the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Primera Nacional · Saturday, Oct 24 2026
· 22:00
Deportivo Madryn
Elo 1685
4
-
1
San Telmo
Elo 1523
FT
HT 2-0
Home Form (5)
2W
2D
1L
Away Form (5)
2W
1D
2L
Elo Advantage
+162
H2H (1)
0H
1D
0A
Elo rating comparison
Deportivo Madryn1685
San Telmo1523
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
0Deportivo Madryn
1Draws
0San Telmo
1 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
64% conf.
CORRECT
Home
64%
Draw
25%
Away
11%
Both Teams to Score
55% conf.
WRONG
Yes
45%
No
55%
Away Clean Sheet
77% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
23%
No
77%
Home Clean Sheet
53% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
47%
No
53%
Double Chance 1X
93% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
93%
No
7%
Double Chance X2
62% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
38%
No
62%
Half-Time Result
48% conf.
WRONG
Home
39%
Draw
48%
Away
13%
HT Both Teams Score
87% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
13%
No
87%
HT Over 0.5
60% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
60%
No
40%
HT Over 1.5
74% conf.
WRONG
Yes
26%
No
74%
Over 1.5 Goals
61% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
61%
No
39%
Over 2.5 Goals
59% conf.
WRONG
Yes
41%
No
59%
Over 3.5 Goals
80% conf.
WRONG
Yes
20%
No
80%
Home Win to Nil
63% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
37%
No
63%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.