How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Ferro Carril Oeste, at 49.7%. The other outcomes represent 50.3% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 49.7% · Draw: 28.9% · Away win: 21.4%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Ferro Carril Oeste 1640; Chaco For Ever 1579. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 0–3. The result did not match the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Primera Nacional · Saturday, Oct 24 2026
· 19:00
Ferro Carril Oeste
Elo 1640
0
-
3
Chaco For Ever
Elo 1579
FT
HT 0-2
Home Form (5)
3W
0D
2L
Away Form (5)
2W
1D
2L
Elo Advantage
+60
H2H (1)
1H
0D
0A
Elo rating comparison
Ferro Carril Oeste1640
Chaco For Ever1579
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
1Ferro Carril Oeste
0Draws
0Chaco For Ever
1 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
50% conf.
WRONG
Home
50%
Draw
29%
Away
21%
Both Teams to Score
55% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
45%
No
55%
Away Clean Sheet
79% conf.
WRONG
Yes
21%
No
79%
Home Clean Sheet
61% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
39%
No
61%
Double Chance 1X
75% conf.
WRONG
Yes
75%
No
25%
Double Chance X2
51% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
51%
No
49%
Half-Time Result
51% conf.
WRONG
Home
34%
Draw
51%
Away
15%
HT Both Teams Score
87% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
13%
No
87%
HT Over 0.5
59% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
59%
No
41%
HT Over 1.5
76% conf.
WRONG
Yes
24%
No
76%
Over 1.5 Goals
59% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
59%
No
41%
Over 2.5 Goals
62% conf.
WRONG
Yes
38%
No
62%
Over 3.5 Goals
87% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
13%
No
87%
Home Win to Nil
74% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
26%
No
74%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.