How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Excursionistas, at 49.4%. The other outcomes represent 50.6% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 49.4% · Draw: 31% · Away win: 19.5%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Excursionistas 1617; Sportivo Italiano 1587. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 4–0. The result matched the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Primera B Metropolitana · Saturday, Oct 24 2026
· 18:00
Excursionistas
Elo 1617
4
-
0
Sportivo Italiano
Elo 1587
FT
HT 3-0
Home Form (5)
1W
3D
1L
Away Form (5)
3W
2D
0L
Elo Advantage
+31
H2H (1)
1H
0D
0A
Elo rating comparison
Excursionistas1617
Sportivo Italiano1587
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
1Excursionistas
0Draws
0Sportivo Italiano
1 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
49% conf.
CORRECT
Home
49%
Draw
31%
Away
20%
Both Teams to Score
55% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
45%
No
55%
Away Clean Sheet
73% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
27%
No
73%
Home Clean Sheet
61% conf.
WRONG
Yes
39%
No
61%
Double Chance 1X
75% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
75%
No
25%
Double Chance X2
55% conf.
WRONG
Yes
55%
No
45%
Half-Time Result
51% conf.
WRONG
Home
33%
Draw
51%
Away
16%
HT Both Teams Score
88% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
12%
No
88%
HT Over 0.5
60% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
60%
No
40%
HT Over 1.5
76% conf.
WRONG
Yes
24%
No
76%
Over 1.5 Goals
56% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
56%
No
44%
Over 2.5 Goals
60% conf.
WRONG
Yes
40%
No
60%
Over 3.5 Goals
85% conf.
WRONG
Yes
15%
No
85%
Home Win to Nil
63% conf.
WRONG
Yes
37%
No
63%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.