How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is D. Puerto Montt, at 53.7%. The other outcomes represent 46.3% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 53.7% · Draw: 19.6% · Away win: 26.7%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: D. Puerto Montt 1512; Union San Felipe 1372. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 3–1. The result matched the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Primera B · Saturday, Oct 24 2026
· 20:30
D. Puerto Montt
Elo 1512
3
-
1
Union San Felipe
Elo 1372
FT
HT 2-0
Home Form (5)
2W
1D
2L
Away Form (5)
0W
1D
4L
Elo Advantage
+140
H2H (2)
0H
0D
2A
Elo rating comparison
D. Puerto Montt1512
Union San Felipe1372
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
0D. Puerto Montt
0Draws
2Union San Felipe
2 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
54% conf.
CORRECT
Home
54%
Draw
20%
Away
27%
Both Teams to Score
57% conf.
WRONG
Yes
43%
No
57%
Away Clean Sheet
80% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
20%
No
80%
Home Clean Sheet
59% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
41%
No
59%
Double Chance 1X
75% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
75%
No
25%
Double Chance X2
55% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
45%
No
55%
Half-Time Result
45% conf.
CORRECT
Home
45%
Draw
35%
Away
20%
HT Both Teams Score
86% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
14%
No
86%
HT Over 0.5
73% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
73%
No
27%
HT Over 1.5
69% conf.
WRONG
Yes
31%
No
69%
Over 1.5 Goals
77% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
77%
No
23%
Over 2.5 Goals
57% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
57%
No
43%
Over 3.5 Goals
71% conf.
WRONG
Yes
29%
No
71%
Home Win to Nil
63% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
37%
No
63%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.