How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Duque de Caxias, at 43.7%. The other outcomes represent 56.3% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 29.3% · Draw: 27% · Away win: 43.7%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Macaé 1434; Duque de Caxias 1553. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 0–0. The result did not match the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Carioca - 2 · Saturday, Oct 24 2026
· 21:30
Macaé
Elo 1434
0
-
0
Duque de Caxias
Elo 1553
FT
HT 0-0
Home Form (5)
3W
0D
2L
Away Form (5)
3W
0D
2L
Elo Advantage
-118
Elo rating comparison
Macaé1434
Duque de Caxias1553
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
—Macaé
—Draws
—Duque de Caxias
0 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
44% conf.
WRONG
Home
29%
Draw
27%
Away
44%
Both Teams to Score
58% conf.
WRONG
Yes
58%
No
42%
Away Clean Sheet
74% conf.
WRONG
Yes
26%
No
74%
Home Clean Sheet
84% conf.
WRONG
Yes
16%
No
84%
Double Chance 1X
53% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
53%
No
47%
Double Chance X2
69% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
69%
No
31%
Half-Time Result
42% conf.
CORRECT
Home
24%
Draw
42%
Away
34%
HT Both Teams Score
76% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
24%
No
76%
HT Over 0.5
72% conf.
WRONG
Yes
72%
No
28%
HT Over 1.5
61% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
39%
No
61%
Over 1.5 Goals
75% conf.
WRONG
Yes
75%
No
25%
Over 2.5 Goals
52% conf.
WRONG
Yes
52%
No
48%
Over 3.5 Goals
67% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
33%
No
67%
Home Win to Nil
89% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
11%
No
89%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.