How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Gernika, at 42.2%. The other outcomes represent 57.8% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 29.8% · Draw: 28% · Away win: 42.2%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Atlético Astorga 1623; Gernika 1648. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 1–1. The result did not match the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 · Saturday, Oct 24 2026
· 14:30
Atlético Astorga
Elo 1623
1
-
1
Gernika
Elo 1648
FT
HT 1-1
Home Form (5)
1W
1D
3L
Away Form (5)
1W
2D
2L
Elo Advantage
-25
Elo rating comparison
Atlético Astorga1623
Gernika1648
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
—Atlético Astorga
—Draws
—Gernika
0 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
42% conf.
WRONG
Home
30%
Draw
28%
Away
42%
Both Teams to Score
69% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
69%
No
31%
Away Clean Sheet
78% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
22%
No
78%
Home Clean Sheet
86% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
14%
No
86%
Double Chance 1X
53% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
53%
No
47%
Double Chance X2
70% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
70%
No
30%
Half-Time Result
39% conf.
CORRECT
Home
28%
Draw
39%
Away
33%
HT Both Teams Score
74% conf.
WRONG
Yes
26%
No
74%
HT Over 0.5
73% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
73%
No
27%
HT Over 1.5
53% conf.
WRONG
Yes
47%
No
53%
Over 1.5 Goals
86% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
86%
No
14%
Over 2.5 Goals
62% conf.
WRONG
Yes
62%
No
38%
Over 3.5 Goals
50% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
50%
No
50%
Home Win to Nil
92% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
8%
No
92%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.