How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Walter Ferretti, at 59.4%. The other outcomes represent 40.6% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 59.4% · Draw: 24.6% · Away win: 16%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Walter Ferretti 1603; Rancho Santana 1373. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 4–1. The result matched the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Primera Division · Sunday, Oct 25 2026
· 00:00
Walter Ferretti
Elo 1603
4
-
1
Rancho Santana
Elo 1373
FT
HT 2-0
Home Form (5)
2W
2D
1L
Away Form (5)
0W
0D
5L
Elo Advantage
+230
H2H (7)
4H
3D
0A
Elo rating comparison
Walter Ferretti1603
Rancho Santana1373
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
4Walter Ferretti
3Draws
0Rancho Santana
7 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
59% conf.
CORRECT
Home
59%
Draw
25%
Away
16%
Both Teams to Score
52% conf.
WRONG
Yes
48%
No
52%
Away Clean Sheet
86% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
14%
No
86%
Home Clean Sheet
59% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
41%
No
59%
Double Chance 1X
85% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
85%
No
15%
Double Chance X2
58% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
42%
No
58%
Half-Time Result
50% conf.
CORRECT
Home
50%
Draw
37%
Away
12%
HT Both Teams Score
78% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
22%
No
78%
HT Over 0.5
74% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
74%
No
26%
HT Over 1.5
61% conf.
WRONG
Yes
39%
No
61%
Over 1.5 Goals
75% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
75%
No
25%
Over 2.5 Goals
56% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
56%
No
44%
Over 3.5 Goals
63% conf.
WRONG
Yes
37%
No
63%
Home Win to Nil
63% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
37%
No
63%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.