How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Monterey Bay, at 38.9%. The other outcomes represent 61.1% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 38.9% · Draw: 26.7% · Away win: 34.5%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Monterey Bay 1388; Las Vegas Lights 1490. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 2–1. The result matched the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
USL Championship · Sunday, Oct 25 2026
· 02:00
Monterey Bay
Elo 1388
2
-
1
Las Vegas Lights
Elo 1490
FT
HT 0-0
Home Form (5)
1W
1D
3L
Away Form (5)
1W
1D
3L
Elo Advantage
-102
H2H (3)
0H
0D
3A
Elo rating comparison
Monterey Bay1388
Las Vegas Lights1490
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
0Monterey Bay
0Draws
3Las Vegas Lights
3 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
39% conf.
CORRECT
Home
39%
Draw
27%
Away
34%
Both Teams to Score
55% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
55%
No
45%
Away Clean Sheet
75% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
25%
No
75%
Home Clean Sheet
80% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
20%
No
80%
Double Chance 1X
60% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
60%
No
40%
Double Chance X2
64% conf.
WRONG
Yes
64%
No
36%
Half-Time Result
39% conf.
CORRECT
Home
30%
Draw
39%
Away
31%
HT Both Teams Score
72% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
28%
No
72%
HT Over 0.5
75% conf.
WRONG
Yes
75%
No
25%
HT Over 1.5
56% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
44%
No
56%
Over 1.5 Goals
78% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
78%
No
22%
Over 2.5 Goals
56% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
56%
No
44%
Over 3.5 Goals
55% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
45%
No
55%
Home Win to Nil
79% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
21%
No
79%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.