How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Lexington, at 35.9%. The other outcomes represent 64.1% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 34.1% · Draw: 30% · Away win: 35.9%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Phoenix Rising 1553; Lexington 1639. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 3–3. The result did not match the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
USL Championship · Sunday, Oct 25 2026
· 02:00
Phoenix Rising
Elo 1553
3
-
3
Lexington
Elo 1639
FT
HT 2-1
Home Form (5)
4W
1D
0L
Away Form (5)
3W
1D
1L
Elo Advantage
-85
H2H (2)
0H
0D
2A
Elo rating comparison
Phoenix Rising1553
Lexington1639
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
0Phoenix Rising
0Draws
2Lexington
2 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
36% conf.
WRONG
Home
34%
Draw
30%
Away
36%
Both Teams to Score
58% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
58%
No
42%
Away Clean Sheet
78% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
22%
No
78%
Home Clean Sheet
78% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
22%
No
78%
Double Chance 1X
60% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
60%
No
40%
Double Chance X2
68% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
68%
No
32%
Half-Time Result
40% conf.
WRONG
Home
30%
Draw
40%
Away
30%
HT Both Teams Score
75% conf.
WRONG
Yes
25%
No
75%
HT Over 0.5
77% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
77%
No
23%
HT Over 1.5
57% conf.
WRONG
Yes
43%
No
57%
Over 1.5 Goals
79% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
79%
No
21%
Over 2.5 Goals
59% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
59%
No
41%
Over 3.5 Goals
58% conf.
WRONG
Yes
42%
No
58%
Home Win to Nil
79% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
21%
No
79%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.