How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Kitakyushu, at 43.8%. The other outcomes represent 56.2% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 43.8% · Draw: 28.8% · Away win: 27.4%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Kitakyushu 1419; Parceiro Nagano 1365. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 3–1. The result matched the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
J3 League · Sunday, Oct 25 2026
· 05:00
Kitakyushu
Elo 1419
3
-
1
Parceiro Nagano
Elo 1365
FT
HT 1-0
Home Form (5)
3W
0D
2L
Away Form (5)
0W
2D
3L
Elo Advantage
+54
Elo rating comparison
Kitakyushu1419
Parceiro Nagano1365
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
—Kitakyushu
—Draws
—Parceiro Nagano
0 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
44% conf.
CORRECT
Home
44%
Draw
29%
Away
27%
Both Teams to Score
55% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
55%
No
45%
Away Clean Sheet
79% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
21%
No
79%
Home Clean Sheet
67% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
33%
No
67%
Double Chance 1X
75% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
75%
No
25%
Double Chance X2
55% conf.
WRONG
Yes
55%
No
45%
Half-Time Result
44% conf.
WRONG
Home
33%
Draw
44%
Away
24%
HT Both Teams Score
80% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
20%
No
80%
HT Over 0.5
67% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
67%
No
33%
HT Over 1.5
70% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
30%
No
70%
Over 1.5 Goals
76% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
76%
No
24%
Over 2.5 Goals
54% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
54%
No
46%
Over 3.5 Goals
70% conf.
WRONG
Yes
30%
No
70%
Home Win to Nil
74% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
26%
No
74%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.