How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Atlético Madrid II, at 43.5%. The other outcomes represent 56.5% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 43.5% · Draw: 26% · Away win: 30.6%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Atlético Madrid II 1729; Real Jaén 1757. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 1–1. The result did not match the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Sunday, Oct 25 2026
· 11:00
Atlético Madrid II
Elo 1729
1
-
1
Real Jaén
Elo 1757
FT
HT 1-0
Home Form (5)
1W
1D
3L
Away Form (5)
5W
0D
0L
Elo Advantage
-28
Elo rating comparison
Atlético Madrid II1729
Real Jaén1757
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
—Atlético Madrid II
—Draws
—Real Jaén
0 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
43% conf.
WRONG
Home
43%
Draw
26%
Away
31%
Both Teams to Score
51% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
51%
No
49%
Away Clean Sheet
80% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
20%
No
80%
Home Clean Sheet
69% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
31%
No
69%
Double Chance 1X
65% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
65%
No
35%
Double Chance X2
56% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
56%
No
44%
Half-Time Result
44% conf.
WRONG
Home
34%
Draw
44%
Away
22%
HT Both Teams Score
79% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
21%
No
79%
HT Over 0.5
68% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
68%
No
32%
HT Over 1.5
62% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
38%
No
62%
Over 1.5 Goals
76% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
76%
No
24%
Over 2.5 Goals
53% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
47%
No
53%
Over 3.5 Goals
74% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
26%
No
74%
Home Win to Nil
79% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
21%
No
79%
Recent results
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Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.