How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Sturm Graz, at 56.6%. The other outcomes represent 43.4% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 56.6% · Draw: 26.4% · Away win: 17%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Sturm Graz 2064; Ried 1900. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 2–2. The result did not match the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #720 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Bundesliga · Sunday, Oct 25 2026
· 13:30
Sturm Graz
Elo 2064
2
-
2
Ried
Elo 1900
FT
HT 1-1
Home Form (5)
4W
1D
0L
Away Form (5)
2W
1D
2L
Elo Advantage
+164
H2H (1)
1H
0D
0A
Elo rating comparison
Sturm Graz2064
Ried1900
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
1Sturm Graz
0Draws
0Ried
1 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
57% conf.
WRONG
Home
57%
@ 1.81
Draw
26%
@ 3.72
Away
17%
@ 3.88
Both Teams to Score
65% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
65%
@ 1.56
No
35%
Away Clean Sheet
90% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
10%
No
90%
Home Clean Sheet
70% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
30%
No
70%
Double Chance 1X
75% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
75%
@ 1.23
No
25%
Double Chance X2
51% conf.
WRONG
Yes
49%
No
51%
Half-Time Result
46% conf.
WRONG
Home
46%
@ 2.29
Draw
36%
@ 2.35
Away
18%
@ 4.21
HT Both Teams Score
78% conf.
WRONG
Yes
22%
No
78%
HT Over 0.5
80% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
80%
@ 1.26
No
20%
HT Over 1.5
57% conf.
WRONG
Yes
43%
No
57%
Over 1.5 Goals
86% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
86%
@ 1.16
No
14%
Over 2.5 Goals
65% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
65%
@ 1.56
No
35%
Over 3.5 Goals
61% conf.
WRONG
Yes
39%
No
61%
Home Win to Nil
79% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
21%
No
79%
Recent results
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Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.