How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Bayer Leverkusen, at 41.7%. The other outcomes represent 58.3% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 36% · Draw: 22.3% · Away win: 41.7%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: 1899 Hoffenheim 2038; Bayer Leverkusen 2227. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 3–0. The result did not match the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #720 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Bundesliga · Sunday, Oct 25 2026
· 14:30
1899 Hoffenheim
Elo 2038
3
-
0
Bayer Leverkusen
Elo 2227
FT
HT 0-0
Home Form (5)
2W
1D
2L
Away Form (5)
1W
1D
3L
Elo Advantage
-189
Elo rating comparison
1899 Hoffenheim2038
Bayer Leverkusen2227
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
—1899 Hoffenheim
—Draws
—Bayer Leverkusen
0 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
42% conf.
WRONG
Home
36%
@ 2.68
Draw
22%
@ 3.92
Away
42%
@ 2.27
Both Teams to Score
66% conf.
WRONG
Yes
66%
@ 1.33
No
34%
Away Clean Sheet
81% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
19%
No
81%
Home Clean Sheet
88% conf.
WRONG
Yes
12%
No
88%
Double Chance 1X
53% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
53%
@ 1.61
No
47%
Double Chance X2
61% conf.
WRONG
Yes
61%
@ 1.44
No
39%
Half-Time Result
36% conf.
CORRECT
Home
33%
@ 3.05
Draw
36%
@ 2.56
Away
32%
@ 2.68
HT Both Teams Score
73% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
27%
No
73%
HT Over 0.5
79% conf.
WRONG
Yes
79%
@ 1.19
No
21%
HT Over 1.5
53% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
47%
No
53%
Over 1.5 Goals
90% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
90%
@ 1.08
No
10%
Over 2.5 Goals
72% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
72%
@ 1.37
No
28%
Over 3.5 Goals
54% conf.
WRONG
Yes
54%
@ 1.96
No
46%
Home Win to Nil
89% conf.
WRONG
Yes
11%
No
89%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.