How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Montalegre, at 60.6%. The other outcomes represent 39.4% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 60.6% · Draw: 25.6% · Away win: 13.8%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Montalegre 1538; Ponte da Barca 1473. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 0–1. The result did not match the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A · Sunday, Oct 25 2026
· 15:00
Montalegre
Elo 1538
0
-
1
Ponte da Barca
Elo 1473
FT
HT 0-0
Home Form (5)
2W
3D
0L
Away Form (5)
0W
2D
3L
Elo Advantage
+66
H2H (4)
0H
4D
0A
Elo rating comparison
Montalegre1538
Ponte da Barca1473
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
0Montalegre
4Draws
0Ponte da Barca
4 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
61% conf.
WRONG
Home
61%
Draw
26%
Away
14%
Both Teams to Score
55% conf.
WRONG
Yes
55%
No
45%
Away Clean Sheet
86% conf.
WRONG
Yes
14%
No
86%
Home Clean Sheet
59% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
41%
No
59%
Double Chance 1X
89% conf.
WRONG
Yes
89%
No
11%
Double Chance X2
61% conf.
WRONG
Yes
39%
No
61%
Half-Time Result
46% conf.
WRONG
Home
46%
Draw
38%
Away
15%
HT Both Teams Score
82% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
18%
No
82%
HT Over 0.5
70% conf.
WRONG
Yes
70%
No
30%
HT Over 1.5
68% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
32%
No
68%
Over 1.5 Goals
76% conf.
WRONG
Yes
76%
No
24%
Over 2.5 Goals
54% conf.
WRONG
Yes
54%
No
46%
Over 3.5 Goals
76% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
24%
No
76%
Home Win to Nil
63% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
37%
No
63%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.