How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Tirsense, at 63.3%. The other outcomes represent 36.7% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 63.3% · Draw: 23.1% · Away win: 13.6%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Tirsense 1598; Maia Lidador 1461. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 3–5. The result did not match the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A · Sunday, Oct 25 2026
· 15:00
Tirsense
Elo 1598
3
-
5
Maia Lidador
Elo 1461
FT
HT 3-3
Home Form (5)
2W
1D
2L
Away Form (5)
0W
3D
2L
Elo Advantage
+136
Elo rating comparison
Tirsense1598
Maia Lidador1461
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
—Tirsense
—Draws
—Maia Lidador
0 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
63% conf.
WRONG
Home
63%
Draw
23%
Away
14%
Both Teams to Score
53% conf.
WRONG
Yes
47%
No
53%
Away Clean Sheet
86% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
14%
No
86%
Home Clean Sheet
58% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
42%
No
58%
Double Chance 1X
85% conf.
WRONG
Yes
85%
No
15%
Double Chance X2
64% conf.
WRONG
Yes
36%
No
64%
Half-Time Result
47% conf.
WRONG
Home
47%
Draw
40%
Away
13%
HT Both Teams Score
82% conf.
WRONG
Yes
18%
No
82%
HT Over 0.5
69% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
69%
No
31%
HT Over 1.5
70% conf.
WRONG
Yes
30%
No
70%
Over 1.5 Goals
77% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
77%
No
23%
Over 2.5 Goals
52% conf.
WRONG
Yes
48%
No
52%
Over 3.5 Goals
72% conf.
WRONG
Yes
28%
No
72%
Home Win to Nil
59% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
41%
No
59%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.