How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is FC Alverca II, at 49.1%. The other outcomes represent 50.9% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 49.1% · Draw: 24.9% · Away win: 26%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: FC Alverca II 1558; AD Nogueirense 1485. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 3–0. The result matched the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C · Sunday, Oct 25 2026
· 15:00
FC Alverca II
Elo 1558
3
-
0
AD Nogueirense
Elo 1485
FT
HT 2-0
Home Form (5)
2W
1D
2L
Away Form (5)
1W
4D
0L
Elo Advantage
+73
Elo rating comparison
FC Alverca II1558
AD Nogueirense1485
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
—FC Alverca II
—Draws
—AD Nogueirense
0 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
49% conf.
CORRECT
Home
49%
Draw
25%
Away
26%
Both Teams to Score
60% conf.
WRONG
Yes
60%
No
40%
Away Clean Sheet
83% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
17%
No
83%
Home Clean Sheet
72% conf.
WRONG
Yes
28%
No
72%
Double Chance 1X
70% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
70%
No
30%
Double Chance X2
50% conf.
WRONG
Yes
50%
No
50%
Half-Time Result
40% conf.
CORRECT
Home
40%
Draw
39%
Away
21%
HT Both Teams Score
79% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
21%
No
79%
HT Over 0.5
71% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
71%
No
29%
HT Over 1.5
67% conf.
WRONG
Yes
33%
No
67%
Over 1.5 Goals
77% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
77%
No
23%
Over 2.5 Goals
56% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
56%
No
44%
Over 3.5 Goals
68% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
32%
No
68%
Home Win to Nil
74% conf.
WRONG
Yes
26%
No
74%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.