How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Os Marialvas, at 61.1%. The other outcomes represent 38.9% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 19.1% · Draw: 19.8% · Away win: 61.1%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Fazendense 1412; Os Marialvas 1584. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 1–2. The result matched the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C · Sunday, Oct 25 2026
· 15:00
Fazendense
Elo 1412
1
-
2
Os Marialvas
Elo 1584
FT
HT 1-0
Home Form (5)
0W
1D
4L
Away Form (5)
1W
1D
3L
Elo Advantage
-172
Elo rating comparison
Fazendense1412
Os Marialvas1584
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
—Fazendense
—Draws
—Os Marialvas
0 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
61% conf.
CORRECT
Home
19%
Draw
20%
Away
61%
Both Teams to Score
54% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
54%
No
46%
Away Clean Sheet
66% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
34%
No
66%
Home Clean Sheet
89% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
11%
No
89%
Double Chance 1X
56% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
44%
No
56%
Double Chance X2
80% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
80%
No
20%
Half-Time Result
50% conf.
WRONG
Home
19%
Draw
31%
Away
50%
HT Both Teams Score
76% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
24%
No
76%
HT Over 0.5
78% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
78%
No
22%
HT Over 1.5
51% conf.
WRONG
Yes
51%
No
49%
Over 1.5 Goals
83% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
83%
No
17%
Over 2.5 Goals
66% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
66%
No
34%
Over 3.5 Goals
54% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
46%
No
54%
Home Win to Nil
100% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
0%
No
100%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.