How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Naval 1893, at 50.6%. The other outcomes represent 49.4% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 50.6% · Draw: 23.5% · Away win: 26%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Naval 1893 1515; Mortágua 1510. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 0–2. The result did not match the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C · Sunday, Oct 25 2026
· 15:00
Naval 1893
Elo 1515
0
-
2
Mortágua
Elo 1510
FT
HT 0-1
Home Form (5)
1W
2D
2L
Away Form (5)
0W
1D
4L
Elo Advantage
+4
H2H (2)
2H
0D
0A
Elo rating comparison
Naval 18931515
Mortágua1510
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
2Naval 1893
0Draws
0Mortágua
2 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
51% conf.
WRONG
Home
51%
Draw
23%
Away
26%
Both Teams to Score
52% conf.
WRONG
Yes
52%
No
48%
Away Clean Sheet
79% conf.
WRONG
Yes
21%
No
79%
Home Clean Sheet
56% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
44%
No
56%
Double Chance 1X
70% conf.
WRONG
Yes
70%
No
30%
Double Chance X2
51% conf.
WRONG
Yes
49%
No
51%
Half-Time Result
46% conf.
WRONG
Home
35%
Draw
46%
Away
19%
HT Both Teams Score
82% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
18%
No
82%
HT Over 0.5
68% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
68%
No
32%
HT Over 1.5
67% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
33%
No
67%
Over 1.5 Goals
73% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
73%
No
27%
Over 2.5 Goals
51% conf.
WRONG
Yes
51%
No
49%
Over 3.5 Goals
70% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
30%
No
70%
Home Win to Nil
74% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
26%
No
74%
Recent results
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Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.