How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Benfica Castelo Branco, at 42.1%. The other outcomes represent 57.9% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 42.1% · Draw: 19% · Away win: 38.8%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Benfica Castelo Branco 1530; O Elvas 1578. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 1–3. The result did not match the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C · Sunday, Oct 25 2026
· 15:00
Benfica Castelo Branco
Elo 1530
1
-
3
O Elvas
Elo 1578
FT
HT 0-1
Home Form (5)
2W
1D
2L
Away Form (5)
3W
0D
2L
Elo Advantage
-47
Elo rating comparison
Benfica Castelo Branco1530
O Elvas1578
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
—Benfica Castelo Branco
—Draws
—O Elvas
0 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
42% conf.
WRONG
Home
42%
Draw
19%
Away
39%
Both Teams to Score
54% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
54%
No
46%
Away Clean Sheet
77% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
23%
No
77%
Home Clean Sheet
76% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
24%
No
76%
Double Chance 1X
58% conf.
WRONG
Yes
58%
No
42%
Double Chance X2
59% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
59%
No
41%
Half-Time Result
39% conf.
WRONG
Home
30%
Draw
39%
Away
31%
HT Both Teams Score
82% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
18%
No
82%
HT Over 0.5
76% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
76%
No
24%
HT Over 1.5
64% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
36%
No
64%
Over 1.5 Goals
83% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
83%
No
17%
Over 2.5 Goals
53% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
53%
No
47%
Over 3.5 Goals
69% conf.
WRONG
Yes
31%
No
69%
Home Win to Nil
83% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
17%
No
83%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.