How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is UD da Serra, at 64.7%. The other outcomes represent 35.3% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 64.7% · Draw: 21.4% · Away win: 13.8%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: UD da Serra 1583; Atlético Malveira 1539. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 1–1. The result did not match the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C · Sunday, Oct 25 2026
· 15:00
UD da Serra
Elo 1583
1
-
1
Atlético Malveira
Elo 1539
FT
HT 0-1
Home Form (5)
2W
3D
0L
Away Form (5)
2W
2D
1L
Elo Advantage
+44
Elo rating comparison
UD da Serra1583
Atlético Malveira1539
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
—UD da Serra
—Draws
—Atlético Malveira
0 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
65% conf.
WRONG
Home
65%
Draw
21%
Away
14%
Both Teams to Score
54% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
54%
No
46%
Away Clean Sheet
84% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
16%
No
84%
Home Clean Sheet
65% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
35%
No
65%
Double Chance 1X
89% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
89%
No
11%
Double Chance X2
60% conf.
WRONG
Yes
40%
No
60%
Half-Time Result
45% conf.
WRONG
Home
45%
Draw
40%
Away
16%
HT Both Teams Score
81% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
19%
No
81%
HT Over 0.5
74% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
74%
No
26%
HT Over 1.5
67% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
33%
No
67%
Over 1.5 Goals
82% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
82%
No
18%
Over 2.5 Goals
55% conf.
WRONG
Yes
55%
No
45%
Over 3.5 Goals
75% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
25%
No
75%
Home Win to Nil
73% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
27%
No
73%
Recent results
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Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.