How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Bjarg, at 46.8%. The other outcomes represent 53.2% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 46.8% · Draw: 22.7% · Away win: 30.4%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Bjarg 1853; jerv 1793. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 4–0. The result matched the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
2. Division - Group 1 · Sunday, Oct 25 2026
· 15:30
Bjarg
Elo 1853
4
-
0
jerv
Elo 1793
FT
HT 1-0
Home Form (5)
4W
0D
1L
Away Form (5)
5W
0D
0L
Elo Advantage
+59
H2H (2)
0H
0D
2A
Elo rating comparison
Bjarg1853
jerv1793
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
0Bjarg
0Draws
2jerv
2 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
47% conf.
CORRECT
Home
47%
Draw
23%
Away
30%
Both Teams to Score
60% conf.
WRONG
Yes
60%
No
40%
Away Clean Sheet
84% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
16%
No
84%
Home Clean Sheet
68% conf.
WRONG
Yes
32%
No
68%
Double Chance 1X
65% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
65%
No
35%
Double Chance X2
52% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
48%
No
52%
Half-Time Result
42% conf.
WRONG
Home
37%
Draw
42%
Away
21%
HT Both Teams Score
75% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
25%
No
75%
HT Over 0.5
75% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
75%
No
25%
HT Over 1.5
62% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
38%
No
62%
Over 1.5 Goals
78% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
78%
No
22%
Over 2.5 Goals
62% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
62%
No
38%
Over 3.5 Goals
65% conf.
WRONG
Yes
35%
No
65%
Home Win to Nil
78% conf.
WRONG
Yes
22%
No
78%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.