How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Estepona, at 36.5%. The other outcomes represent 63.5% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 36.5% · Draw: 29.7% · Away win: 33.8%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Estepona 1702; Ciudad de Lucena 1761. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 2–2. The result did not match the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 · Saturday, Oct 24 2026
· 17:00
Estepona
Elo 1702
2
-
2
Ciudad de Lucena
Elo 1761
FT
HT 1-0
Home Form (5)
2W
2D
1L
Away Form (5)
3W
1D
1L
Elo Advantage
-60
Elo rating comparison
Estepona1702
Ciudad de Lucena1761
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
—Estepona
—Draws
—Ciudad de Lucena
0 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
36% conf.
WRONG
Home
36%
Draw
30%
Away
34%
Both Teams to Score
63% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
63%
No
37%
Away Clean Sheet
78% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
22%
No
78%
Home Clean Sheet
78% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
22%
No
78%
Double Chance 1X
64% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
64%
No
36%
Double Chance X2
66% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
66%
No
34%
Half-Time Result
43% conf.
WRONG
Home
27%
Draw
43%
Away
30%
HT Both Teams Score
77% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
23%
No
77%
HT Over 0.5
68% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
68%
No
32%
HT Over 1.5
60% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
40%
No
60%
Over 1.5 Goals
79% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
79%
No
21%
Over 2.5 Goals
55% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
55%
No
45%
Over 3.5 Goals
63% conf.
WRONG
Yes
37%
No
63%
Home Win to Nil
83% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
17%
No
83%
Recent results
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Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.