How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Xerez, at 59.6%. The other outcomes represent 40.4% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 59.6% · Draw: 23.6% · Away win: 16.8%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Xerez 1682; Marbella 1567. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 1–0. The result matched the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 · Sunday, Oct 25 2026
· 18:00
Xerez
Elo 1682
1
-
0
Marbella
Elo 1567
FT
HT 0-0
Home Form (5)
2W
2D
1L
Away Form (5)
1W
2D
2L
Elo Advantage
+114
Elo rating comparison
Xerez1682
Marbella1567
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
—Xerez
—Draws
—Marbella
0 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
60% conf.
CORRECT
Home
60%
Draw
24%
Away
17%
Both Teams to Score
59% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
41%
No
59%
Away Clean Sheet
80% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
20%
No
80%
Home Clean Sheet
53% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
53%
No
47%
Double Chance 1X
84% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
84%
No
16%
Double Chance X2
54% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
46%
No
54%
Half-Time Result
50% conf.
CORRECT
Home
34%
Draw
50%
Away
15%
HT Both Teams Score
84% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
16%
No
84%
HT Over 0.5
61% conf.
WRONG
Yes
61%
No
39%
HT Over 1.5
68% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
32%
No
68%
Over 1.5 Goals
70% conf.
WRONG
Yes
70%
No
30%
Over 2.5 Goals
59% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
41%
No
59%
Over 3.5 Goals
79% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
21%
No
79%
Home Win to Nil
59% conf.
WRONG
Yes
41%
No
59%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.