How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Bragança, at 63.0%. The other outcomes represent 37.0% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 18.3% · Draw: 18.6% · Away win: 63%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Maria da Fonte 1405; Bragança 1616. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 1–2. The result matched the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A · Sunday, Oct 25 2026
· 16:00
Maria da Fonte
Elo 1405
1
-
2
Bragança
Elo 1616
FT
HT 0-1
Home Form (5)
1W
1D
3L
Away Form (5)
3W
0D
2L
Elo Advantage
-211
Elo rating comparison
Maria da Fonte1405
Bragança1616
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
—Maria da Fonte
—Draws
—Bragança
0 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
63% conf.
CORRECT
Home
18%
Draw
19%
Away
63%
Both Teams to Score
58% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
58%
No
42%
Away Clean Sheet
64% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
36%
No
64%
Home Clean Sheet
90% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
10%
No
90%
Double Chance 1X
70% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
30%
No
70%
Double Chance X2
83% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
83%
No
17%
Half-Time Result
43% conf.
CORRECT
Home
18%
Draw
39%
Away
43%
HT Both Teams Score
77% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
23%
No
77%
HT Over 0.5
76% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
76%
No
24%
HT Over 1.5
55% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
45%
No
55%
Over 1.5 Goals
86% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
86%
No
14%
Over 2.5 Goals
61% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
61%
No
39%
Over 3.5 Goals
55% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
45%
No
55%
Home Win to Nil
100% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
0%
No
100%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.