How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Marbelli, at 50.6%. The other outcomes represent 49.4% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 50.6% · Draw: 27.1% · Away win: 22.3%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Marbelli 1533; Atlético Porcuna 1473. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 0–0. The result did not match the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Sunday, Oct 25 2026
· 16:30
Marbelli
Elo 1533
0
-
0
Atlético Porcuna
Elo 1473
FT
HT 0-0
Home Form (5)
3W
1D
1L
Away Form (5)
3W
1D
1L
Elo Advantage
+59
H2H (1)
1H
0D
0A
Elo rating comparison
Marbelli1533
Atlético Porcuna1473
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
1Marbelli
0Draws
0Atlético Porcuna
1 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
51% conf.
WRONG
Home
51%
Draw
27%
Away
22%
Both Teams to Score
55% conf.
WRONG
Yes
55%
No
45%
Away Clean Sheet
81% conf.
WRONG
Yes
19%
No
81%
Home Clean Sheet
69% conf.
WRONG
Yes
31%
No
69%
Double Chance 1X
75% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
75%
No
25%
Double Chance X2
55% conf.
WRONG
Yes
45%
No
55%
Half-Time Result
43% conf.
CORRECT
Home
39%
Draw
43%
Away
17%
HT Both Teams Score
76% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
24%
No
76%
HT Over 0.5
67% conf.
WRONG
Yes
67%
No
33%
HT Over 1.5
67% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
33%
No
67%
Over 1.5 Goals
76% conf.
WRONG
Yes
76%
No
24%
Over 2.5 Goals
56% conf.
WRONG
Yes
56%
No
44%
Over 3.5 Goals
71% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
29%
No
71%
Home Win to Nil
74% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
26%
No
74%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.