How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is La Calzada, at 48.1%. The other outcomes represent 51.9% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 28.7% · Draw: 23.2% · Away win: 48.1%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Cenicero 1251; La Calzada 1439. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 0–1. The result matched the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Sunday, Oct 25 2026
· 16:00
Cenicero
Elo 1251
0
-
1
La Calzada
Elo 1439
FT
HT 0-1
Home Form (5)
0W
0D
5L
Away Form (5)
1W
0D
4L
Elo Advantage
-188
Elo rating comparison
Cenicero1251
La Calzada1439
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
—Cenicero
—Draws
—La Calzada
0 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
48% conf.
CORRECT
Home
29%
Draw
23%
Away
48%
Both Teams to Score
61% conf.
WRONG
Yes
61%
No
39%
Away Clean Sheet
72% conf.
WRONG
Yes
28%
No
72%
Home Clean Sheet
85% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
15%
No
85%
Double Chance 1X
53% conf.
WRONG
Yes
53%
No
47%
Double Chance X2
71% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
71%
No
29%
Half-Time Result
45% conf.
CORRECT
Home
26%
Draw
29%
Away
45%
HT Both Teams Score
77% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
23%
No
77%
HT Over 0.5
78% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
78%
No
22%
HT Over 1.5
56% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
44%
No
56%
Over 1.5 Goals
86% conf.
WRONG
Yes
86%
No
14%
Over 2.5 Goals
66% conf.
WRONG
Yes
66%
No
34%
Over 3.5 Goals
59% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
41%
No
59%
Home Win to Nil
88% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
12%
No
88%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.