How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Sarriana, at 47.9%. The other outcomes represent 52.1% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 47.9% · Draw: 24% · Away win: 28.1%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Sarriana 1606; Portonovo SD 1508. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 2–1. The result matched the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Saturday, Oct 24 2026
· 16:00
Sarriana
Elo 1606
2
-
1
Portonovo SD
Elo 1508
FT
HT 0-1
Home Form (5)
2W
2D
1L
Away Form (5)
2W
1D
2L
Elo Advantage
+98
Elo rating comparison
Sarriana1606
Portonovo SD1508
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
—Sarriana
—Draws
—Portonovo SD
0 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
48% conf.
CORRECT
Home
48%
Draw
24%
Away
28%
Both Teams to Score
60% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
60%
No
40%
Away Clean Sheet
83% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
17%
No
83%
Home Clean Sheet
74% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
26%
No
74%
Double Chance 1X
75% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
75%
No
25%
Double Chance X2
52% conf.
WRONG
Yes
52%
No
48%
Half-Time Result
42% conf.
WRONG
Home
42%
Draw
36%
Away
22%
HT Both Teams Score
79% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
21%
No
79%
HT Over 0.5
74% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
74%
No
26%
HT Over 1.5
61% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
39%
No
61%
Over 1.5 Goals
77% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
77%
No
23%
Over 2.5 Goals
54% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
54%
No
46%
Over 3.5 Goals
61% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
39%
No
61%
Home Win to Nil
79% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
21%
No
79%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.