How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Caudal, at 74.2%. The other outcomes represent 25.8% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 74.2% · Draw: 17.1% · Away win: 8.7%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Caudal 1670; Avilés Stadium 1393. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 2–1. The result matched the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Sunday, Oct 25 2026
· 16:30
Caudal
Elo 1670
2
-
1
Avilés Stadium
Elo 1393
FT
HT 1-0
Home Form (5)
4W
0D
1L
Away Form (5)
1W
3D
1L
Elo Advantage
+277
H2H (1)
1H
0D
0A
Elo rating comparison
Caudal1670
Avilés Stadium1393
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
1Caudal
0Draws
0Avilés Stadium
1 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
74% conf.
CORRECT
Home
74%
Draw
17%
Away
9%
Both Teams to Score
63% conf.
WRONG
Yes
37%
No
63%
Away Clean Sheet
87% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
13%
No
87%
Home Clean Sheet
61% conf.
WRONG
Yes
61%
No
39%
Double Chance 1X
93% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
93%
No
7%
Double Chance X2
71% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
29%
No
71%
Half-Time Result
50% conf.
CORRECT
Home
50%
Draw
40%
Away
10%
HT Both Teams Score
82% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
18%
No
82%
HT Over 0.5
70% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
70%
No
30%
HT Over 1.5
63% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
37%
No
63%
Over 1.5 Goals
80% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
80%
No
20%
Over 2.5 Goals
60% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
60%
No
40%
Over 3.5 Goals
72% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
28%
No
72%
Home Win to Nil
59% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
41%
No
59%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.