How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Sporting Gijón II, at 58.5%. The other outcomes represent 41.5% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 20.3% · Draw: 21.1% · Away win: 58.5%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Siero 1409; Sporting Gijón II 1727. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 1–2. The result matched the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Saturday, Oct 24 2026
· 17:45
Siero
Elo 1409
1
-
2
Sporting Gijón II
Elo 1727
FT
HT 0-1
Home Form (5)
2W
2D
1L
Away Form (5)
4W
1D
0L
Elo Advantage
-319
Elo rating comparison
Siero1409
Sporting Gijón II1727
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
—Siero
—Draws
—Sporting Gijón II
0 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
59% conf.
CORRECT
Home
20%
Draw
21%
Away
59%
Both Teams to Score
54% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
54%
No
46%
Away Clean Sheet
57% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
43%
No
57%
Home Clean Sheet
87% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
13%
No
87%
Double Chance 1X
70% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
30%
No
70%
Double Chance X2
82% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
82%
No
18%
Half-Time Result
42% conf.
CORRECT
Home
20%
Draw
38%
Away
42%
HT Both Teams Score
79% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
21%
No
79%
HT Over 0.5
71% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
71%
No
29%
HT Over 1.5
60% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
40%
No
60%
Over 1.5 Goals
81% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
81%
No
19%
Over 2.5 Goals
60% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
60%
No
40%
Over 3.5 Goals
68% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
32%
No
68%
Home Win to Nil
97% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
3%
No
97%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.