How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Durango, at 56.7%. The other outcomes represent 43.3% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 56.7% · Draw: 26.9% · Away win: 16.4%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Durango 1517; Pasaia KE 1374. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 2–0. The result matched the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Saturday, Oct 24 2026
· 15:00
Durango
Elo 1517
2
-
0
Pasaia KE
Elo 1374
FT
HT 2-0
Home Form (5)
4W
1D
0L
Away Form (5)
0W
1D
4L
Elo Advantage
+142
H2H (4)
0H
4D
0A
Elo rating comparison
Durango1517
Pasaia KE1374
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
0Durango
4Draws
0Pasaia KE
4 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
57% conf.
CORRECT
Home
57%
Draw
27%
Away
16%
Both Teams to Score
56% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
44%
No
56%
Away Clean Sheet
78% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
22%
No
78%
Home Clean Sheet
55% conf.
WRONG
Yes
45%
No
55%
Double Chance 1X
75% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
75%
No
25%
Double Chance X2
57% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
43%
No
57%
Half-Time Result
41% conf.
WRONG
Home
41%
Draw
41%
Away
17%
HT Both Teams Score
84% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
16%
No
84%
HT Over 0.5
67% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
67%
No
33%
HT Over 1.5
67% conf.
WRONG
Yes
33%
No
67%
Over 1.5 Goals
73% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
73%
No
27%
Over 2.5 Goals
51% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
49%
No
51%
Over 3.5 Goals
75% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
25%
No
75%
Home Win to Nil
63% conf.
WRONG
Yes
37%
No
63%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.