How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Leioa, at 67.0%. The other outcomes represent 33.0% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 67% · Draw: 24.7% · Away win: 8.3%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Leioa 1610; Sodupe 1418. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 3–0. The result matched the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Saturday, Oct 24 2026
· 16:00
Leioa
Elo 1610
3
-
0
Sodupe
Elo 1418
FT
HT 1-0
Home Form (5)
1W
1D
3L
Away Form (5)
3W
2D
0L
Elo Advantage
+192
Elo rating comparison
Leioa1610
Sodupe1418
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
—Leioa
—Draws
—Sodupe
0 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
67% conf.
CORRECT
Home
67%
Draw
25%
Away
8%
Both Teams to Score
58% conf.
WRONG
Yes
58%
No
42%
Away Clean Sheet
83% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
17%
No
83%
Home Clean Sheet
56% conf.
WRONG
Yes
44%
No
56%
Double Chance 1X
97% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
97%
No
3%
Double Chance X2
65% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
35%
No
65%
Half-Time Result
49% conf.
CORRECT
Home
49%
Draw
38%
Away
14%
HT Both Teams Score
74% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
26%
No
74%
HT Over 0.5
72% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
72%
No
28%
HT Over 1.5
59% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
41%
No
59%
Over 1.5 Goals
85% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
85%
No
15%
Over 2.5 Goals
62% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
62%
No
38%
Over 3.5 Goals
61% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
39%
No
61%
Home Win to Nil
67% conf.
WRONG
Yes
33%
No
67%
Recent results
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Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.