How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Real Sociedad III, at 41.6%. The other outcomes represent 58.4% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 41.6% · Draw: 28.5% · Away win: 29.9%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Real Sociedad III 1556; Deportivo Alavés III 1582. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 2–2. The result did not match the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Sunday, Oct 25 2026
· 11:15
Real Sociedad III
Elo 1556
2
-
2
Deportivo Alavés III
Elo 1582
FT
HT 0-0
Home Form (5)
2W
1D
2L
Away Form (5)
2W
2D
1L
Elo Advantage
-26
Elo rating comparison
Real Sociedad III1556
Deportivo Alavés III1582
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
—Real Sociedad III
—Draws
—Deportivo Alavés III
0 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
42% conf.
WRONG
Home
42%
Draw
28%
Away
30%
Both Teams to Score
52% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
52%
No
48%
Away Clean Sheet
77% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
23%
No
77%
Home Clean Sheet
67% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
33%
No
67%
Double Chance 1X
70% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
70%
No
30%
Double Chance X2
61% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
61%
No
39%
Half-Time Result
43% conf.
CORRECT
Home
34%
Draw
43%
Away
23%
HT Both Teams Score
74% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
26%
No
74%
HT Over 0.5
74% conf.
WRONG
Yes
74%
No
26%
HT Over 1.5
61% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
39%
No
61%
Over 1.5 Goals
76% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
76%
No
24%
Over 2.5 Goals
53% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
53%
No
47%
Over 3.5 Goals
72% conf.
WRONG
Yes
28%
No
72%
Home Win to Nil
79% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
21%
No
79%
Recent results
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Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.